Chinese domestic market
1. Tariff Policies Drive Growth in High-End Steel Exports
Tariffs affect China's steel exports by more than 20 million tons. The China Iron and Steel Association initially predicted that, based on the current tariff level, China's direct and indirect steel exports, most of which are high-end steel, may exceed 20 million tons in 2025.
2. Surge in Steel Billet Exports Eases Domestic Supply-Demand Imbalance
From January to March 2025, China's steel billet exports reached 2.5594 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.5 times, becoming an important variable for balancing domestic supply and demand. The main exporting countries are Indonesia, the Philippines, Italy, etc. Among them, the Southeast Asian market circumvents the trade barriers of finished products through the "local processing-re-export" model, driving a surge in demand for steel billets.
Overseas market
1. Indonesia's Higher Royalty Taxes Disrupt Nickel Supply Chains
The Indonesian government has increased the royalty tax rates for nickel, coal, copper, gold, and other minerals. The Indonesian government has increased the royalty tax rates for nickel, coal, copper, gold, and other minerals. Among them, the nickel tax rate has increased the most, from the original fixed 10% to 14% to 19%.
2. ECB Signals Gradual Rate Cuts Amid Trade Risks
ECB Governing Council: There is still room for gradual rate cuts. The ECB Governing Council said that the trade war caused by US tariffs will not affect Europe's inflation trend, and the ECB still has room for gradual rate cuts.
3. Divergent Global Equity Markets: U.S. Slips, Europe Rises
The three major US stock indexes closed down collectively, with the Nasdaq down 0.74%, the S&P 500 down 0.63%, and the Dow down 0.24%. Popular Chinese stocks rose and fell, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index down 0.04%. Major European stock indices closed with no gains or losses, and the German DAX30 index rose 1.19%.
4. Precious Metals Rally on Safe-Haven Demand
COMEX gold futures rose 3.04% to $3,342/ounce. COMEX silver futures rose 1.15% to $32.63/ounce.
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